Why Did People Vote Brexit

Brexit: A Re-enfranchised Exit?

In this opinion piece, I’m going to attempt to explain why I think 17.4 million people voted Leave, discuss some Remain propaganda and clarify why I’m switching sides to join the Brexiteers.

In writing this post, I have come to the salient thought that it is a shame we still live in a capitalist world; where economics and jobs are so tightly coupled and factors of GDP and economic growth have such influence in important decisions. But very much like Truman, “I’ve accepted the reality of the world with which I am presented”.

“A vote to Remain is a vote to keep the status quo, a vote to Leave is a vote for change. For those with nothing and those who have been marginalised, it would be foolish to vote Remain.”

“Leavers don’t understand how much the EU has given in grants”

Readers of this post may be thinking that Brexiteers have ill-formed opinions about the amount of money the EU has granted them. The confusion comes from a difference of perspective. They see it as the UK’s money being handed back to them in the form of handouts, rather than external money being invested. To explore this mindset further, it is worth looking at how the word “Europe” is used in and outside the UK. From conversations with continental European friends, when “Europe” is mentioned in the media, their mind automatically includes Britain, whilst among my UK friends, when “Europe” is mentioned, it is always in reference to mainland Europe and, unless explicitly stated, excludes the UK. This reminds me of a story from the Canadian Astronaut, Chris Hadfield. Each time he orbited around the Earth, his perceptive lens widened until “you just start seeing the whole world” and it is no longer Us and Them (referring to Asia) but rather an extension of Us. It is obvious that the majority of the UK have an Us/Them attitude, and until this view changes, being part of the EU is no better than a trade agreement.

wales-sign.webp If you keep in mind the idea that it is simply “our” money being spent, when you see EU branded signs, it is no longer about awareness of the EU’s investment but rather the EU taking credit for something they did not do. (N.B. I have no idea whether it was the Welsh Government or the EU that decided on the branding.)

“Leavers are all racists”

The other common belief is that those who voted Leave are xenophobes. As we know, life is not black and white. It is simply not case that half the British population are white racists. This is an unsubstantiated claim and just demonstrates ignorance from Remainers; I find it a disappointing attitude and think it as damaging as other sweeping statements like “immigrants are taking our jobs”. Sure, there are racists and they should not be tolerated, they need to be educated and reformed but to blindly brand millions as racists is just the pot calling the kettle black.

“Leavers were misled.”

True, but for as long as I can remember, this has always been the case with politics. Yes, some people took the £350m NHS headline at face value; however, I would argue that the vast majority knew it was just a sensational headline. The campaign was more about taking control of what to spend public money on rather than letting the EU decide. We may not be confident that the Government will spend responsibly, and we may also believe that Brexit will ultimately reduce the funds available, but the fact that we (as an independent nation) can spend them as we wish is indisputable.

“The EU is responsible for peace in Europe”

I’ve seen this bandied around social media a lot; I’m sure being part of the EU has helped and the initial mandate in 1957 of the EEC did state to “end wars between neighbours” but it is absolutely not the single factor. For the EU to take the credit for peace in Europe without mentioning NATO or the UN is a disservice. In addition, to having the EU and NATO, we have finally learnt from the past wars, we have better communication, nuclear deterrents, quality of life improvements, more widespread democracy and increased world trade, all of which help keep the peace. And before you comment, I am aware that the EU received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012, but the UN was awarded it in 2001 and arguably NATO deserved it more than the EU.

NATO’s essential purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

POLITICAL - NATO promotes democratic values and encourages consultation and cooperation on defence and security issues to build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict.

MILITARY - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military capacity needed to undertake crisis-management operations.

“The EU gave us Human Rights”

I’ve also seen memes and videos suggesting that the EU gave us Human Rights. The EU (28 members) and Council of Europe (47 members) that operates the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) are two completely independent bodies. Being part of one does not automatically include the other. In fact, the Human Rights Act means courts in the United Kingdom are required to give effect to other laws in a way that was compatible with human rights and take into account decisions by the ECHR. This will not change if the UK leaves the EU. There will be no obligation on parliament to change the Human Rights Act (unless Theresa May gets her way).

Furthermore, we actually have a global convention called the The Universal Declaration of Human Rights written by the UN (193 members). In reality, no decent person can object to the concept of Human Rights but to use it as an argument to stay in EU is deceptive.

EU Regulation

The distance between the common working person and an EU politician based in Brussels seems great, especially ones elected from a foreign land. They are not informed enough to govern on local matters and, due to the diversity of Europe (cultural, environmental, economic, etc.), it is impossible to know the ramifications of regulations they vote on. Even MPs in the UK who are directly responsible for their constituents struggle to empathise with the everyday person.

It seems strange that most countries in Europe will vote on whether an Irish citizen can dig up peat, when most EU MP’s will have never seen peat before. Also why force local markets in the UK to use the metric system? It should only be applied to those wanting to export (although, the EU did give up on this in 2007). Examples like these suggest an overbearing EU, with poorly thought-out regulation that overreaches the EU mandate and contributes little. Furthermore, it indicates the EU’s lack of confidence in sovereign nations to implement their own laws. Petty regulation that affect everyday people has slowly lead to a groundswell of resentment.

For those thinking the kilogram is a superior measurement, the Imperial Standard Pound was defined in exactly the same way as International Prototype Kilogram and pre-dates it by 45 years.

Immigration

Unsurprisingly, the topic of immigration is complex and emotional. The facts from both sides were not clearly presented, and I’ve been surprised with some of my findings. Henceforth, I’m going to use the word expat because the word immigrant has been loaded with negative connotations. Also, expat is more accurate because most plan to move back home, and if they stay and call the UK their home, then they are British.

“University College London research found that each 1% increase in the share of migrants in the UK-born working age population leads to a 0.6% decline in the wages of the 5% lowest paid workers and to an increase in the wages of higher paid workers.” (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpb21/Cpapers/CDP_03_08.pdf)

“The impact of immigration on the public finances is relatively small according to most studies, costing or contributing less than 1% of UK GDP.” (https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-good-or-bad-economy/)

In short, immigration has little impact (positive or negative) on the economy and has downward pressure on wages for the lowest paid. This is a bit of a surprise to me, as a Remainer I assumed immigration gave a boost to the economy. It is worth pointing out that expats from EEA had a net positive fiscal impact, paying 34% more tax then than they took out. Unfortunately, for most people, the EU’s free movement of workers has been bundled in with all immigration.

Jobs

Polls suggest that if you voted Remain, you are educated, young, not in the DE social grade and therefore have probably never personally experienced job losses due to: oversupply of workforce, someone willing to work for less, overseas competition or the Tories. Job loss is something you don’t worry about. But what about the millions that are working class that have no defensible skills? Those that are beholden to “the man”, unable to move jobs, whose angry parents lived through the Tories’ disempowerment of the working class in the 80’s and warned them daily about “foreigners”. Whose class have experienced the most job loss since the 1980s, from the closure of mines, factories, shipyards, and steel mills. Who have seen expats coming into the country and getting work whilst they are unable to do so. Imagine the above and you start to get an understanding of why there is a fear of immigration.

Welfare

Benefit cheats (home grown or from expats) are an example of a very few spoiling it for the masses but looking at the press coverage you would think otherwise. If you (like most people) are informed from the media, you get a very disproportionate view of reality. Some expats take advantage of UK benefits e.g. purposely have a child born in the UK, move back to Eastern Europe and still claim child benefits. This very specific example only accounts to £30m/year, it’s such a small amount it really doesn’t matter but it gets a lot of bad press. Reminds me of a talk by Derick Sivers.

EU Economics

The European Court of Auditors, the EU’s independent fiscal watchdog, has refused to give the accounts a clean bill of health for the 21st year running, saying payments worth billions of pounds were irregular and possibly illegal.

Waste

I don’t really want to dwell on this point, as money is “wasted” in all sectors (public and private), and it’s not really wasted as it is still spent on labour, equipment, taxes which flows into the wider economy. However, 21 years of auditors refusing to give the EU a clean bill of health points to a serious underlying issue.

Anecdotally, I once attempted the EU grants application process and just the paperwork was horrific. I was even put in touch with a consultant who specialised in completing EU grant applications and only took a fee (20% commission) if the application was successful. It is not corrupt, just exceptionally bureaucratic which leads to waste, inefficiencies and lack of transparency.

A study by the think-tank Open Europe found that the worst-case “Brexit” scenario is that the UK economy loses 2.2 per cent of its total GDP by 2030 (by comparison, the recession of 2008–09 knocked about 6 per cent off UK GDP). http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

Cost

The membership cost of the EU is $12B per year, of which $4.5B is returned through various means. In the grand scheme of all UK spending it is such a small amount that it shouldn’t be part of the argument. But projected growth figures of leaving the EU is equally insignificant, estimated at 2.2% less than Remaining over 14 years. The last recession, over the course of a year set the UK back by almost 3x that amount.

Trade

Within the UK, small businesses account for 60% of all employment and almost half of all turnover. For most small/medium sized businesses in the UK, export trade isn’t really that easy with the EU (or anywhere globally). A trade tariff will make them less competitive but the exchange rate, labour costs, logistics, language barriers, competition from China probably make a far bigger difference.

The EU in 2014 accounted for 44.6% of UK exports of goods and services, and 53.2% of UK imports of goods and services.

Exports from the UK to EU and non-EU countries have grown on average by 3.6% and 6.5% respectively in each year between 1999 and 2014. However, the stronger export growth to non-EU countries has resulted in the proportion of UK exports destined for the EU falling from 54.8% in 1999 to 44.6% in 2014.

Even with UK exports to the EU in decline and exports from EU to the UK staying strong, irrespective of leaving the single market, we need each other. Whether or not the EU decide to make an example of us (at the cost of their own economy) comes down to diplomacy, good luck Boris.

Leaving the EU probably means the time taken to setup a trade agreement will be faster than a collection of 27 nations. The EU have ~46 trade deals in place, the UK is the 5th/6th largest economy in the world, I imagine those 46 countries would welcome a conversation. Furthermore, the existing “terms & conditions” of the trade deals with the EU would probably “just work” for the UK.

UK Politics

“Politicians act in their own self interest. Promise anything and deliver little. They are never held accountable. Democracy is broken.”

1997 was the start of a sharp decrease in the number of people voting in the general elections. In 2015 it was only 66%, yet a year later 72% people voted in the referendum (even with terrible weather keeping some voters at home)! Wow, people care more about this single issue than who Governs the country.

brexit-votes-by-age

In the last general election 13% voted UKIP, including 9% of 18–29 year olds, proving that it is not just “old people”. The warning signs were clear (and are mirrored across the EU), but the EU/UK have done little to alleviate concerns. Obviously ignoring vast swathes of people will lead to anger.

For those voters whom voices were not being heard, what choice was left? People feel disenfranchised but voting Leave means being heard, taking back control which leads to the feeling of re-enfranchisement.

Conclusion

The general populace (Remainers and Leavers) are not well informed; media and politicians are absolutely to blame.

It is my belief that the decision to vote leave was not solely about the EU but rather about not being heard. I also believe that over the last 30 years, we have moved too quickly, at a rate of change acceptable within cities but beyond the comfort levels of most elsewhere. It feels strange to write that as I’ve always been one for moving as fast as possible, damn the consequences, but I may have been wrong. We (London, Scotland, N. Ireland, other big cities) have left the rest of the country behind (53% of the population). Let us be less selfish and commit to leaving; economic numbers suggest it doesn’t matter too much and we can wait for the rest of the country to catch up. Why does it matter if it takes 200 years instead of 50 to unify, if the journey is a happier one?

For those who voted Leave, for the first time in a long while your vote actually invoked change, you actually made a difference. If it ends up being for the worse at least you have rejuvenated the population’s interest in politics, which until last month I would have said was near impossible.

From a purely selfish point of view, the EU are in real trouble, the UK accounts for roughly 17% of the EU’s GDP and exiting will leave a big hole. It might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, in which case it really is better to be one of the first out. I really hope this is not the case as it would mean the UK would have caused the collapse of one of the greatest unions in history. Furthermore, with prolonged mass unemployment (Greece 25%, Spain 20%, EU average 10%), Italy on the verge of another bailout and the far right gaining momentum, things do not look bright for the EU.

To be clear, given a second referendum I would still vote Remain. Why? The initial result means the minority are now the majority and they can no longer be ignored. If the second referendum goes the way of Remain, the EU will know how close they came to losing the UK, and will be forced to reform.

But as of this moment, I’m leaving the Remain camp and staying out of camps all together because I want to get on with things. Things will not be as bad as the Remainers think, the future can still be bright. We can choose to keep our border open, we can increase trade with the rest of the world, we can negotiate a low tariff with the EU, we can choose to listen to the grievances of everyone, ensure decisions don’t marginalise the masses, take stock and get our house in order, but only if we stand united.

I invite the intelligent people who voted Remain to move on and start building our future together.

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